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Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OL)
SC
Samuel Cosmi
OL · Texas
— · 6'5" · 314 lb
RS
Rashawn Slater
OL · Northwestern
— · 6'4" · 304 lb
TJ
Teven Jenkins
OL · Oklahoma St.
— · 6'5" · 317 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Samuel Cosmi
Predicted pick
#34
range #24–#44
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
#41
on 26 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$17Mmodel
Rashawn Slater
Predicted pick
#14
range #4–#24
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/4
Consensus rank
#9
on 27 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$29Mmodel
Teven Jenkins
Predicted pick
#18
range #5–#31
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
#26
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Samuel Cosmi· Offensive line
  • Rashawn Slater· Offensive line
  • Teven Jenkins· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionSamuel Cosmi50
  • AthleticismSamuel Cosmi72
  • AgeSamuel Cosmi51
  • ConsensusRashawn Slater91
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Samuel Cosmi50
  • Breakout ageSamuel Cosmi50
  • WorkloadSamuel Cosmi50
  • RAS × productionSamuel Cosmi0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • James DanielsC · Starter→ shared bySamuel CosmiRashawn SlaterTeven Jenkins
  • Jack ConklinOT · TBD→ shared bySamuel CosmiRashawn SlaterTeven Jenkins
  • Andre DillardOT · Contributor→ shared bySamuel CosmiRashawn SlaterTeven Jenkins
  • Kolton MillerOT · Starter→ shared bySamuel CosmiRashawn Slater
  • Connor WilliamsOT · Franchise→ shared byRashawn SlaterTeven Jenkins
Samuel Cosmi
  • James Danielsshared
    C · #39
    Starter
  • Jack Conklinshared
    OT · #8
    TBD
  • Jason Spriggs
    OT · #48
    TBD
  • Andre Dillardshared
    OT · #22
    Contributor
  • Kolton Millershared
    OT · #15
    Starter
Rashawn Slater
  • James Danielsshared
    C · #39
    Starter
  • Andre Dillardshared
    OT · #22
    Contributor
  • Connor Williamsshared
    OT · #50
    Franchise
  • Jack Conklinshared
    OT · #8
    TBD
  • Kolton Millershared
    OT · #15
    Starter
Teven Jenkins
  • Jack Conklinshared
    OT · #8
    TBD
  • Andre Dillardshared
    OT · #22
    Contributor
  • James Danielsshared
    C · #39
    Starter
  • Connor Williamsshared
    OT · #50
    Franchise
  • Dion Dawkins
    G · #63
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Samuel Cosmi
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: James Daniels, Kolton Miller. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
  • Above-average athletic profile
    RAS 8.64 (86th percentile at OL). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL.
Rashawn Slater
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: James Daniels, Connor Williams, Kolton Miller. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Teven Jenkins
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: James Daniels, Connor Williams. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Samuel CosmiRashawn SlaterTeven Jenkins· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Samuel Cosmi

Draftanomics projects Samuel Cosmi as a Day 2 pick at #34 (range #24-#44, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: James Daniels (Starter), Jack Conklin, Jason Spriggs. Ceiling is Kolton Miller (Starter); floor is Jason Spriggs. RAS 8.64 (86th percentile at OL). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #34 sits within 12 spots of the room's #46 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Rashawn Slater

Draftanomics projects Rashawn Slater as a first-round pick at #14 (range #4-#24, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: James Daniels (Starter), Andre Dillard (Contributor), Connor Williams (Franchise). Ceiling is Connor Williams (Franchise); floor is Andre Dillard (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #14 sits within 3 spots of the room's #11 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Teven Jenkins

Draftanomics projects Teven Jenkins as a first-round pick at #18 (range #5-#31, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jack Conklin, Andre Dillard (Contributor), James Daniels (Starter). Ceiling is Connor Williams (Franchise); floor is Dion Dawkins. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #18 sits within 12 spots of the room's #30 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.