3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Caleb Farley (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #37 (range #27-#47, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Marshon Lattimore (Bust), Jalen Ramsey (Starter), Greedy Williams (Contributor). Ceiling is Denzel Ward (Starter); floor is Greedy Williams (Contributor). RAS 8.98 (89th percentile at CB). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 19 spots below the room's consensus #18 — don't pay sticker price. The 19-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Jaycee Horn (age 21.4 at draft) as a first-round pick at #28 (range #6-#50, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Justin Layne (Bust), Marshon Lattimore (Bust), Fabian Moreau (Bust). Ceiling is Jalen Ramsey (Starter); floor is Mike Hughes (Starter). RAS 8.86 (88th percentile at CB). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL. 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Justin Layne, Marshon Lattimore, Fabian Moreau. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 12 spots below the room's consensus #16 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Eric Stokes (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #38 (range #22-#54, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Greedy Williams (Contributor), Mike Hughes (Starter), Jaire Alexander (Starter). Ceiling is Jaire Alexander (Starter); floor is Greedy Williams (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Justin Layne, Adoree' Jackson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #38 sits within 11 spots of the room's #49 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.