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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DL)
DH
Daelin Hayes
DL · Notre Dame
22.9 yo · 6'3" · 253 lb
CG
Chauncey Golston
DL · Iowa
23.2 yo · 6'4" · 269 lb
RW
Rashad Weaver
DL · Pittsburgh
23.5 yo · 6'4" · 259 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Daelin Hayes
Predicted pick
#196
range #173–#219
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#161
on 1 board
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Chauncey Golston
Predicted pick
#205
range #122–#256
Bust probability
21%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Rashad Weaver
Predicted pick
#156
range #117–#195
Bust probability
10%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#150
on 23 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Daelin Hayes· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Chauncey Golston· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Rashad Weaver· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDaelin Hayes0
  • AthleticismDaelin Hayes60
  • AgeDaelin Hayes45
  • ConsensusChauncey Golston28
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Daelin Hayes50
  • Breakout ageDaelin Hayes50
  • WorkloadChauncey Golston100
  • RAS × productionDaelin Hayes30

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Daelin Hayes
  • Kendell Beckwith
    ILB · #107
    Bust
  • Kylie Fitts
    EDGE · #181
    Bust
  • Drue Tranquill
    LB · #130
    Starter
  • Daeshon Hall
    EDGE · #77
    Bust
  • Charles Tapper
    EDGE · #101
    Bust
Chauncey Golston
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Rashad Weaver
  • Jordan Brailford
    EDGE · #253
    Bust
  • Micah Kiser
    ILB · #147
    Contributor
  • Blake Cashman
    LB · #157
    Starter
  • Josey Jewell
    ILB · #106
    Starter
  • Sione Takitaki
    LB · #80
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Daelin Hayes
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Kendell Beckwith, Kylie Fitts, Daeshon Hall (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Below-cohort college production
    Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.25 — well below the front7 average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #117; model has him #196 — a 79-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 21.0 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.
Chauncey Golston
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Rashad Weaver
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    24 boards have him at mean rank #93; model has him #156 — a 63-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Blake Cashman, Josey Jewell.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Daelin HayesChauncey GolstonRashad Weaver· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Daelin Hayes

Draftanomics projects Daelin Hayes (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #196 (range #173-#219, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kendell Beckwith (Bust), Kylie Fitts (Bust), Drue Tranquill (Starter). Ceiling is Drue Tranquill (Starter); floor is Kylie Fitts (Bust). School SP+ 21.0 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Kendell Beckwith, Kylie Fitts, Daeshon Hall (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #117 and the model won't take him before #196 — a 79-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.

Chauncey Golston

−0.04 charting yards per coverage snap career avg; −0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.04 age

Rashad Weaver

Draftanomics projects Rashad Weaver (age 23.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #156 (range #117-#195, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jordan Brailford (Bust), Micah Kiser (Contributor), Blake Cashman (Starter). Ceiling is Josey Jewell (Starter); floor is Micah Kiser (Contributor). Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #93 and the model won't take him before #156 — a 63-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.