2 prospects · 2021 draft
Decisive factor: 77-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 45 points lower and $9M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Daviyon Nixon (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #112 (range #73-#151, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Rasheem Green (Starter), Sheldon Rankins (Starter), Harrison Phillips (Starter). Ceiling is Sheldon Rankins (Starter); floor is Harrison Phillips (Starter). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #61 and the model won't take him before #112 — a 51-spot markdown. The 51-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Alim McNeill (age 21.0 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #35 (range #9-#61, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Justin Jones (Starter), R.J. McIntosh (Bust), B.J. Hill (Starter). Ceiling is Jeffery Simmons (Starter); floor is Trysten Hill (Backup). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: R.J. McIntosh, Trysten Hill. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 43 spots ahead of the room (board #35 vs consensus #78), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.