3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Dayo Odeyingbo (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #131 (range #89-#173, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Larry Ogunjobi (Bust), Stephen Weatherly (Contributor), Yannick Ngakoue (Starter). Ceiling is Yannick Ngakoue (Starter); floor is Stephen Weatherly (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Larry Ogunjobi, Dawuane Smoot. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #131 — a 37-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jonathan Marshall (age 23.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #167 (range #113-#221, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Renell Wren (Bust), Dakota Allen (Bust), Sebastian Joseph-Day (Starter). Ceiling is L.J. Collier (Starter); floor is P.J. Johnson. Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 76 spots ahead of the room (board #167 vs consensus #243), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Boogie Basham (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #207 (range #190-#224, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #43 and the model won't take him before #207 — a 164-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.