2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: $9M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kenneth Murray (age 21.4 at draft) as a first-round pick at #19 (range #1-#61, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Joel Iyiegbuniwe (Bust), Genard Avery (Contributor), Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor). Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Azeem Victor. 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Joel Iyiegbuniwe. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #19 sits within 6 spots of the room's #25 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Isaiah Simmons (age 21.7 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #10 (range #1-#52, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joel Iyiegbuniwe (Bust), Genard Avery (Contributor), Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor). Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Peter Kalambayi. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #10 sits within 6 spots of the room's #4 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.