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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OT)
TW
Tristan Wirfs
OT · Iowa
— · — · —
AT
Andrew Thomas
OT · Georgia
— · — · —
AJ
Austin Jackson
OT · USC
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Tristan Wirfs
Predicted pick
#5
range #1–#15
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
#10
on 28 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$31Mmodel
Andrew Thomas
Predicted pick
#12
range #2–#22
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
Consensus rank
#11
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$28Mmodel
Austin Jackson
Predicted pick
#31
range #17–#45
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
#50
on 28 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Tristan Wirfs· Offensive line
  • Andrew Thomas· Offensive line
  • Austin Jackson· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTristan Wirfs50
  • AthleticismTristan Wirfs77
  • AgeTristan Wirfs46
  • ConsensusAndrew Thomas93
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Tristan Wirfs50
  • Breakout ageTristan Wirfs50
  • WorkloadTristan Wirfs50
  • RAS × productionTristan Wirfs34

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Jack ConklinOT · TBD→ shared byTristan WirfsAndrew ThomasAustin Jackson
  • Connor WilliamsOT · Franchise→ shared byTristan WirfsAndrew ThomasAustin Jackson
  • Garett BollesOT · TBD→ shared byTristan WirfsAndrew ThomasAustin Jackson
  • Kolton MillerOT · Starter→ shared byTristan WirfsAustin Jackson
  • Mike McGlincheyOT · Franchise→ shared byTristan WirfsAndrew Thomas
Tristan Wirfs
  • Jack Conklinshared
    OT · #8
    TBD
  • Connor Williamsshared
    OT · #50
    Franchise
  • Garett Bollesshared
    OT · #20
    TBD
  • Kolton Millershared
    OT · #15
    Starter
  • Mike McGlincheyshared
    OT · #9
    Franchise
Andrew Thomas
  • Jack Conklinshared
    OT · #8
    TBD
  • Cam Robinson
    OT · #34
    TBD
  • Connor Williamsshared
    OT · #50
    Franchise
  • Garett Bollesshared
    OT · #20
    TBD
  • Mike McGlincheyshared
    OT · #9
    Franchise
Austin Jackson
  • Jack Conklinshared
    OT · #8
    TBD
  • Connor Williamsshared
    OT · #50
    Franchise
  • Kolton Millershared
    OT · #15
    Starter
  • Brian O'Neill
    OT · #62
    Franchise
  • Garett Bollesshared
    OT · #20
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Tristan Wirfs
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Connor Williams, Kolton Miller, Mike McGlinchey. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Andrew Thomas
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Connor Williams, Mike McGlinchey. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Austin Jackson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Connor Williams, Kolton Miller, Brian O'Neill. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Tristan WirfsAndrew ThomasAustin Jackson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Tristan Wirfs

Draftanomics projects Tristan Wirfs as a top-10 pick at #5 (range #1-#15, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jack Conklin, Connor Williams (Franchise), Garett Bolles. Ceiling is Mike McGlinchey (Franchise); floor is Garett Bolles. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #5 sits within 5 spots of the room's #10 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Andrew Thomas

Draftanomics projects Andrew Thomas as a first-round pick at #12 (range #2-#22, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jack Conklin, Cam Robinson, Connor Williams (Franchise). Ceiling is Mike McGlinchey (Franchise); floor is Cam Robinson. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #12 and the room's #12 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Austin Jackson

Draftanomics projects Austin Jackson as a first-round pick at #31 (range #17-#45, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jack Conklin, Connor Williams (Franchise), Kolton Miller (Starter). Ceiling is Connor Williams (Franchise); floor is Garett Bolles. The call is a value lean: #31 against a consensus #53 is a 22-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.