3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Evan Weaver (age 21.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #79 (range #35-#123, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Shaquille Leonard (Franchise), Jacob Martin (Contributor), Genard Avery (Contributor). Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Jacob Martin (Contributor). Drafted #202 by ARI in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 84 spots ahead of the room (board #79 vs consensus #162) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Davion Taylor (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #144 (range #92-#196, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joel Iyiegbuniwe (Bust), Devante Downs (Bust), Shaquille Leonard (Franchise). Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Zaire Franklin (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Devante Downs, Matthew Adams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #111 and the model won't take him before #144 — a 33-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Malik Harrison (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #67 (range #28-#106, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Blake Martinez (Starter), Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor), Raekwon McMillan. Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jordan Evans, Duke Riley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #67 against a consensus #83 is a 16-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.