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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2020 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
RL
Rashard Lawrence
DT · LSU
21.7 yo · — · —
RD
Raekwon Davis
DT · Alabama
22.9 yo · — · —
JE
Jordan Elliott
DT · Texas
22.4 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Rashard Lawrence
Predicted pick
#199
range #58–#242
Bust probability
46%
Consensus rank
#73
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Raekwon Davis
Predicted pick
#56
range #20–#189
Bust probability
11%
Consensus rank
#95
on 24 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel
Jordan Elliott
Predicted pick
#65
range #18–#183
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
#74
on 23 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Rashard Lawrence· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Raekwon Davis· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Jordan Elliott· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionRashard Lawrence0
  • AthleticismRashard Lawrence29
  • AgeJordan Elliott82
  • ConsensusRashard Lawrence8
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Rashard Lawrence50
  • Breakout ageRashard Lawrence50
  • WorkloadRashard Lawrence100
  • RAS × productionRashard Lawrence0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Rashard Lawrence
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Raekwon Davis
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jordan Elliott
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Rashard Lawrence
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Raekwon Davis
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jordan Elliott
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Rashard LawrenceRaekwon DavisJordan Elliott· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Rashard Lawrence

−0.06 HS recruit rating; −0.03 boards with him top-100; −0.03 charting missed tackle rate

Raekwon Davis

+0.08 boards with him top-100; −0.04 HS recruit rating; +0.03 charting run def grade career avg

Jordan Elliott

+0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.04 HS recruit rating; +0.02 age