Compare prospects · Draftanomics

Leki Fotu

DT · Utah

21.7 yo · — · —

DaVon Hamilton

DT · Ohio St.

23.2 yo · — · —

Larrell Murchison

DT · North Carolina St.

23.0 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Leki Fotu

Predicted pick

#202

range #152–#252

Bust probability

10%

0%0/4 comps

Consensus rank

#69

on 2 boards

Career arc

Bust

tier · Day 3

2nd-deal AAV

$4Mmodel

DaVon Hamilton

Predicted pick

#119

range #72–#166

Bust probability

0%0/5 comps

Consensus rank

#92

on 14 boards

Career arc

Bust

tier · Day 3

2nd-deal AAV

$8Mmodel

Larrell Murchison

Predicted pick

#196

range #172–#220

Bust probability

10%

0%0/5 comps

Consensus rank

—

no boards yet

Career arc

Starter

tier · Day 3

2nd-deal AAV

$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

Prospects

Leki Fotu· EDGE / DL / LB
DaVon Hamilton· EDGE / DL / LB
Larrell Murchison· EDGE / DL / LB

Axis leaders

ProductionLeki Fotu0
AthleticismLeki Fotu53
AgeLeki Fotu91
ConsensusLeki Fotu9
Per-play impact (PPA)Leki Fotu50
Breakout ageLeki Fotu50
WorkloadDaVon Hamilton100
RAS × productionLeki Fotu0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps

Davon GodchauxDT · Bust→ shared byLeki FotuDaVon Hamilton

Leki Fotu

Taven Bryan
DT · #29
Contributor
Davon Godchauxshared
DT · #178
Bust
Joey Ivie
DT · #228
TBD
Justin Jones
DT · #84
Starter
D.J. Jones
DT · #198
Bust

DaVon Hamilton

Davon Godchauxshared
DT · #178
Bust
Vincent Taylor
DT · #194
Bust
Vita Vea
DT · #12
Starter
Ryan Glasgow
DT · #138
Bust
Dalvin Tomlinson
DT · #55
Bust

Larrell Murchison

Rodney Gunter
DT · #116
Starter
Xavier Cooper
DT · #96
Franchise
Grover Stewart
DT · #144
Bust
David Onyemata
DT · #120
Starter
Darius Kilgo
DT · #203
Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Leki Fotu

Risks

Comp group bust rate
2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, D.J. Jones. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Below-cohort college production
Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.06 — well below the front7 average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers.

Opportunities

Consensus says higher
3 boards have him at mean rank #97; model has him #202 — a 105-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

DaVon Hamilton

Risks

Older prospect
Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Average-to-below athletic profile
RAS 4.98 (49th percentile at DT). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
Comp group bust rate
4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, Vincent Taylor, Ryan Glasgow (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.

Opportunities

Consensus says higher
15 boards have him at mean rank #83; model has him #119 — a 36-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Larrell Murchison

Risks

Older prospect
Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.

Opportunities

Strong comp group
4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Rodney Gunter, Xavier Cooper, David Onyemata (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

Leki FotuDaVon HamiltonLarrell Murchison· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Leki Fotu

Draftanomics projects Leki Fotu (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #202 (range #152-#252, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Taven Bryan (Contributor), Davon Godchaux (Bust), Joey Ivie. Ceiling is Justin Jones (Starter); floor is Joey Ivie. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, D.J. Jones. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #97 and the model won't take him before #202 — a 105-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.

DaVon Hamilton

Draftanomics projects DaVon Hamilton (age 23.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #119 (range #72-#166, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Davon Godchaux (Bust), Vincent Taylor (Bust), Vita Vea (Starter). Ceiling is Vita Vea (Starter); floor is Vincent Taylor (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, Vincent Taylor, Ryan Glasgow (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #83 and the model won't take him before #119 — a 36-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Larrell Murchison

Draftanomics projects Larrell Murchison (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #196 (range #172-#220, wide band). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Rodney Gunter (Starter), Xavier Cooper (Franchise), Grover Stewart (Bust). Ceiling is Xavier Cooper (Franchise); floor is Darius Kilgo (Starter). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #181 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.