3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Leki Fotu (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #202 (range #152-#252, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Taven Bryan (Contributor), Davon Godchaux (Bust), Joey Ivie. Ceiling is Justin Jones (Starter); floor is Joey Ivie. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, D.J. Jones. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #97 and the model won't take him before #202 — a 105-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Robert Windsor (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #184 (range #135-#233, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 38% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joey Ivie, Arik Armstead (Franchise), Davon Godchaux (Bust). Ceiling is Arik Armstead (Franchise); floor is Joey Ivie. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, Ryan Glasgow, D.J. Jones. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #184 sits within 8 spots of the room's #176 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 38% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Larrell Murchison (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #196 (range #172-#220, wide band). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Rodney Gunter (Starter), Xavier Cooper (Franchise), Grover Stewart (Bust). Ceiling is Xavier Cooper (Franchise); floor is Darius Kilgo (Starter). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #181 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.