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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
NG
Neville Gallimore
DT · Oklahoma
23.3 yo · — · —
LF
Leki Fotu
DT · Utah
21.7 yo · — · —
DH
DaVon Hamilton
DT · Ohio St.
23.2 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Neville Gallimore
Predicted pick
#66
range #26–#106
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#44
on 27 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Leki Fotu
Predicted pick
#202
range #152–#252
Bust probability
10%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#69
on 2 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
DaVon Hamilton
Predicted pick
#119
range #72–#166
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#92
on 14 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Neville Gallimore· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Leki Fotu· EDGE / DL / LB
  • DaVon Hamilton· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionNeville Gallimore0
  • AthleticismLeki Fotu53
  • AgeLeki Fotu91
  • ConsensusNeville Gallimore30
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Neville Gallimore50
  • Breakout ageNeville Gallimore50
  • WorkloadNeville Gallimore100
  • RAS × productionNeville Gallimore0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Dalvin TomlinsonDT · Bust→ shared byNeville GallimoreDaVon Hamilton
  • Davon GodchauxDT · Bust→ shared byLeki FotuDaVon Hamilton
Neville Gallimore
  • Caleb Brantley
    DT · #185
    Bust
  • Dalvin Tomlinsonshared
    DT · #55
    Bust
  • Montravius Adams
    DT · #93
    Bust
  • Sheldon Day
    DT · #103
    Starter
  • Elijah Qualls
    DT · #214
    Bust
Leki Fotu
  • Taven Bryan
    DT · #29
    Contributor
  • Davon Godchauxshared
    DT · #178
    Bust
  • Joey Ivie
    DT · #228
    TBD
  • Justin Jones
    DT · #84
    Starter
  • D.J. Jones
    DT · #198
    Bust
DaVon Hamilton
  • Davon Godchauxshared
    DT · #178
    Bust
  • Vincent Taylor
    DT · #194
    Bust
  • Vita Vea
    DT · #12
    Starter
  • Ryan Glasgow
    DT · #138
    Bust
  • Dalvin Tomlinsonshared
    DT · #55
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Neville Gallimore
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 3.98 (39th percentile at DT). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Caleb Brantley, Dalvin Tomlinson, Montravius Adams (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Leki Fotu
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, D.J. Jones. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Below-cohort college production
    Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.06 — well below the front7 average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    3 boards have him at mean rank #97; model has him #202 — a 105-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
DaVon Hamilton
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.98 (49th percentile at DT). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, Vincent Taylor, Ryan Glasgow (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    15 boards have him at mean rank #83; model has him #119 — a 36-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Neville GallimoreLeki FotuDaVon Hamilton· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Neville Gallimore

Draftanomics projects Neville Gallimore (age 23.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #66 (range #26-#106, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Caleb Brantley (Bust), Dalvin Tomlinson (Bust), Montravius Adams (Bust). Ceiling is Sheldon Day (Starter); floor is Elijah Qualls (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Caleb Brantley, Dalvin Tomlinson, Montravius Adams (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 19 spots below the room's consensus #47 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Leki Fotu

Draftanomics projects Leki Fotu (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #202 (range #152-#252, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Taven Bryan (Contributor), Davon Godchaux (Bust), Joey Ivie. Ceiling is Justin Jones (Starter); floor is Joey Ivie. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, D.J. Jones. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #97 and the model won't take him before #202 — a 105-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.

DaVon Hamilton

Draftanomics projects DaVon Hamilton (age 23.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #119 (range #72-#166, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Davon Godchaux (Bust), Vincent Taylor (Bust), Vita Vea (Starter). Ceiling is Vita Vea (Starter); floor is Vincent Taylor (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, Vincent Taylor, Ryan Glasgow (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #83 and the model won't take him before #119 — a 36-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.