3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects CeeDee Lamb (age 21.0 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #2 (range #1-#22, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: James Washington (Contributor), Corey Davis (Bust), Tre'Quan Smith (Starter). Ceiling is Laquon Treadwell (Starter); floor is James Washington (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Corey Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #2 sits within 6 spots of the room's #8 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Tee Higgins (age 21.3 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #46 (range #26-#66, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Laquon Treadwell (Starter), James Washington (Contributor), JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust). Ceiling is Laquon Treadwell (Starter); floor is James Washington (Contributor). RAS 2.76 (27th percentile vs WR prospects in a 435-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #46 sits within 3 spots of the room's #43 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Jerry Jeudy (age 21.0 at draft) as a first-round pick at #24 (range #10-#38, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Laquon Treadwell (Starter), Mike Williams (Bust), JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust). Ceiling is Calvin Ridley (Franchise); floor is James Washington (Contributor). RAS 3.87 (38th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 16 spots below the room's consensus #8 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.