3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Justin Jefferson (age 20.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #26 (range #5-#47, wide band). Bust probability sits at 1% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: James Washington (Contributor), Corey Coleman (Starter), Corey Davis (Bust). Ceiling is Corey Coleman (Starter); floor is James Washington (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #26 sits within 4 spots of the room's #22 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 1% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects CeeDee Lamb (age 21.0 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #2 (range #1-#22, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: James Washington (Contributor), Corey Davis (Bust), Tre'Quan Smith (Starter). Ceiling is Laquon Treadwell (Starter); floor is James Washington (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Corey Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #2 sits within 6 spots of the room's #8 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Tyler Johnson (age 21.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #86 (range #50-#122, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tre'Quan Smith (Starter), James Washington (Contributor), Keke Coutee (Contributor). Ceiling is DJ Chark (Starter); floor is Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #86 and the room's #86 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 4% bust probability break ties on draft day.