2 prospects · 2020 draft
AJ Terrell and Noah Igbinoghene project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects AJ Terrell (age 21.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #78 (range #67-#89, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Marlon Humphrey (Bust), Sidney Jones (Bust), Jaire Alexander (Starter). Ceiling is Jaire Alexander (Starter); floor is Carlton Davis (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Marlon Humphrey, Sidney Jones, Quincy Wilson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #41 and the model won't take him before #78 — a 37-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Noah Igbinoghene (age 20.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #47 (range #37-#57, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Carlton Davis (Starter), Sidney Jones (Bust), Donte Jackson (Starter). Ceiling is Donte Jackson (Starter); floor is Carlton Davis (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Sidney Jones, Quincy Wilson, Marlon Humphrey. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #47 sits within 10 spots of the room's #57 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.