Compare prospects · Draftanomics

DaVon Hamilton

DT · Ohio St.

23.2 yo · — · —

Leki Fotu

DT · Utah

21.7 yo · — · —

Larrell Murchison

DT · North Carolina St.

23.0 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

DaVon Hamilton

Predicted pick

#119

range #72–#166

Bust probability

0%0/5 comps

Consensus rank

#92

on 14 boards

Career arc

Bust

tier · Day 3

2nd-deal AAV

$8Mmodel

Leki Fotu

Predicted pick

#202

range #152–#252

Bust probability

10%

0%0/4 comps

Consensus rank

#69

on 2 boards

Career arc

Bust

tier · Day 3

2nd-deal AAV

$4Mmodel

Larrell Murchison

Predicted pick

#196

range #172–#220

Bust probability

10%

0%0/5 comps

Consensus rank

—

no boards yet

Career arc

Starter

tier · Day 3

2nd-deal AAV

$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

Prospects

DaVon Hamilton· EDGE / DL / LB
Leki Fotu· EDGE / DL / LB
Larrell Murchison· EDGE / DL / LB

Axis leaders

ProductionDaVon Hamilton0
AthleticismLeki Fotu53
AgeLeki Fotu91
ConsensusLeki Fotu9
Per-play impact (PPA)DaVon Hamilton50
Breakout ageDaVon Hamilton50
WorkloadDaVon Hamilton100
RAS × productionDaVon Hamilton0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps

Davon GodchauxDT · Bust→ shared byDaVon HamiltonLeki Fotu

DaVon Hamilton

Davon Godchauxshared
DT · #178
Bust
Vincent Taylor
DT · #194
Bust
Vita Vea
DT · #12
Starter
Ryan Glasgow
DT · #138
Bust
Dalvin Tomlinson
DT · #55
Bust

Leki Fotu

Taven Bryan
DT · #29
Contributor
Davon Godchauxshared
DT · #178
Bust
Joey Ivie
DT · #228
TBD
Justin Jones
DT · #84
Starter
D.J. Jones
DT · #198
Bust

Larrell Murchison

Rodney Gunter
DT · #116
Starter
Xavier Cooper
DT · #96
Franchise
Grover Stewart
DT · #144
Bust
David Onyemata
DT · #120
Starter
Darius Kilgo
DT · #203
Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

DaVon Hamilton

Risks

Older prospect
Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Average-to-below athletic profile
RAS 4.98 (49th percentile at DT). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
Comp group bust rate
4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, Vincent Taylor, Ryan Glasgow (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.

Opportunities

Consensus says higher
15 boards have him at mean rank #83; model has him #119 — a 36-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Leki Fotu

Risks

Comp group bust rate
2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, D.J. Jones. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Below-cohort college production
Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.06 — well below the front7 average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers.

Opportunities

Consensus says higher
3 boards have him at mean rank #97; model has him #202 — a 105-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Larrell Murchison

Risks

Older prospect
Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.

Opportunities

Strong comp group
4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Rodney Gunter, Xavier Cooper, David Onyemata (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

DaVon HamiltonLeki FotuLarrell Murchison· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

DaVon Hamilton

Draftanomics projects DaVon Hamilton (age 23.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #119 (range #72-#166, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Davon Godchaux (Bust), Vincent Taylor (Bust), Vita Vea (Starter). Ceiling is Vita Vea (Starter); floor is Vincent Taylor (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, Vincent Taylor, Ryan Glasgow (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #83 and the model won't take him before #119 — a 36-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Leki Fotu

Draftanomics projects Leki Fotu (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #202 (range #152-#252, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Taven Bryan (Contributor), Davon Godchaux (Bust), Joey Ivie. Ceiling is Justin Jones (Starter); floor is Joey Ivie. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, D.J. Jones. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #97 and the model won't take him before #202 — a 105-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.

Larrell Murchison

Draftanomics projects Larrell Murchison (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #196 (range #172-#220, wide band). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Rodney Gunter (Starter), Xavier Cooper (Franchise), Grover Stewart (Bust). Ceiling is Xavier Cooper (Franchise); floor is Darius Kilgo (Starter). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #181 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.