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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
BA
Brandon Aiyuk
WR · Arizona St.
22.1 yo · — · —
DM
Denzel Mims
WR · Baylor
22.5 yo · 6'3" · 207 lb
CC
Chase Claypool
WR · Notre Dame
21.8 yo · 6'4" · 238 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Brandon Aiyuk
Predicted pick
#32
range #6–#136
Bust probability
4%
Consensus rank
#40
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$30Mmodel
Denzel Mims
Predicted pick
#57
range #31–#161
Bust probability
12%
Consensus rank
#34
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Chase Claypool
Predicted pick
#122
range #42–#230
Bust probability
16%
Consensus rank
#85
on 23 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Brandon Aiyuk· RB / WR / TE
  • Denzel Mims· RB / WR / TE
  • Chase Claypool· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionBrandon Aiyuk0
  • AthleticismChase Claypool81
  • AgeChase Claypool76
  • ConsensusBrandon Aiyuk20
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Brandon Aiyuk50
  • Breakout ageBrandon Aiyuk50
  • WorkloadBrandon Aiyuk100
  • RAS × productionBrandon Aiyuk0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Brandon Aiyuk
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Denzel Mims
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Chase Claypool
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Brandon Aiyuk
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Denzel Mims
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Chase Claypool
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Brandon AiyukDenzel MimsChase Claypool· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Brandon Aiyuk

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.04 charting: yards per route run from the slot, career avg; +0.02 boards with him top-50

Denzel Mims

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.03 boards with him top-50; +0.02 number of boards ranking him

Chase Claypool

+0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 athleticism (RAS)