2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: $27M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV. Reinforced by 25-pick gap on Draftanomics projection and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Denzel Mims (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #57 (range #19-#95, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Chris Godwin (Bust), Antonio Callaway (Contributor), Will Fuller (Starter). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Kolby Listenbee. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #37 — don't pay sticker price. The 20-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Brandon Aiyuk (age 22.1 at draft) as a first-round pick at #32 (range #1-#82, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Courtland Sutton (Franchise), Christian Kirk (Franchise), D.J. Moore (Franchise). Ceiling is D.J. Moore (Franchise); floor is Keke Coutee (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #32 sits within 9 spots of the room's #41 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.