2 prospects · 2020 draft
John Penisini and Broderick Washington Jr. project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects John Penisini (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #183 (range #167-#199, wide band). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ryan Glasgow (Bust), Vincent Valentine (Bust), David Parry (Franchise). Ceiling is David Parry (Franchise); floor is Carl Davis (Starter). RAS 2.37 (23th percentile vs DT prospects in a 312-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #183 vs consensus #215), and at a 10% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Broderick Washington Jr. (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #225 (range #190-#260, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Sebastian Joseph-Day (Starter), Jullian Taylor (Bust), B.J. Hill (Starter). Ceiling is B.J. Hill (Starter); floor is Sebastian Joseph-Day (Starter). Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #225 stands alone — and with bust risk at 10%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.