3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Raekwon Davis (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #56 (range #8-#104, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Elijah Qualls (Bust), Dalvin Tomlinson (Bust), Caleb Brantley (Bust). Ceiling is Joshua Frazier; floor is Elijah Qualls (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Elijah Qualls, Dalvin Tomlinson, Caleb Brantley (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #56 against a consensus #81 is a 25-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with average-to-below athletic profile the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Elliott (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #65 (range #34-#96, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Caleb Brantley (Bust), Montravius Adams (Bust), Sheldon Day (Starter). Ceiling is Sheldon Day (Starter); floor is Kentavius Street (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Caleb Brantley, Montravius Adams, Elijah Qualls. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #65 sits within 6 spots of the room's #71 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Rashard Lawrence (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #199 (range #159-#239, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Elijah Qualls (Bust), Montravius Adams (Bust), Sheldon Day (Starter). Ceiling is Sheldon Day (Starter); floor is Elijah Qualls (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Elijah Qualls, Montravius Adams, Caleb Brantley (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #93 and the model won't take him before #199 — a 106-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.