3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Dexter Lawrence (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #34 (range #1-#77, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Robert Nkemdiche (Starter), Kenny Clark (Starter), Andrew Billings (Bust). Ceiling is Sheldon Rankins (Starter); floor is Robert Nkemdiche (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #34 and the room's #32 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Jerry Tillery (age 22.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #84 (range #43-#125, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jonathan Bullard (Starter), Sheldon Rankins (Starter), Sheldon Day (Starter). Ceiling is Sheldon Rankins (Starter); floor is Sheldon Day (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #29 and the model won't take him before #84 — a 55-spot markdown. The 55-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Dre'Mont Jones (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #42 (range #1-#86, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Sheldon Day (Starter), Jonathan Bullard (Starter), Montravius Adams (Bust). Ceiling is Sheldon Rankins (Starter); floor is Sheldon Day (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #42 sits within 11 spots of the room's #53 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.