2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: $27M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects A.J. Brown (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #48 (range #1-#108, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Isaiah Ford, Will Fuller (Starter), Daniel Braverman (Bust). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Isaiah Ford. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Daniel Braverman, Corey Davis. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #34 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Marquise Brown (age 21.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #25 (range #12-#38, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust), Laquon Treadwell (Starter), Corey Davis (Bust). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Laquon Treadwell (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis, Mike Williams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #25 sits within 7 spots of the room's #32 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.