3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects A.J. Brown (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #48 (range #1-#108, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Isaiah Ford, Will Fuller (Starter), Daniel Braverman (Bust). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Isaiah Ford. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Daniel Braverman, Corey Davis. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #34 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects D.K. Metcalf (age 21.4 at draft) as a first-round pick at #23 (range #1-#64, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Chris Godwin (Bust), Kolby Listenbee, Curtis Samuel (Bust). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Kolby Listenbee. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Chris Godwin, Curtis Samuel. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #23 and the room's #22 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects JJ Arcega-Whiteside (age 22.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #87 (range #39-#135, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust), Daniel Braverman (Bust), Shelton Gibson (Bust). Ceiling is Carlos Henderson; floor is Isaiah Ford. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Daniel Braverman, Shelton Gibson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 26 spots below the room's consensus #61 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.