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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
GW
Greedy Williams
CB · LSU
21.4 yo · 6'2" · 185 lb
JL
Justin Layne
CB · Michigan St.
21.3 yo · 6'2" · 192 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Greedy Williams over Justin Layne.

Decisive factor: 18-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Greedy Williams
Predicted pick
#22
range #12–#32
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#19
on 26 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Justin Layne
Predicted pick
#40
range #1–#87
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/4
Consensus rank
#52
on 24 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Greedy Williams· CB / S
  • Justin Layne· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionGreedy Williams36
  • AthleticismGreedy Williams37
  • AgeJustin Layne83
  • ConsensusGreedy Williams92
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Greedy Williams50
  • Breakout ageGreedy Williams50
  • WorkloadGreedy Williams100
  • RAS × productionGreedy Williams26

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Adoree' JacksonCB · Bust→ shared byGreedy WilliamsJustin Layne
  • Kevin KingCB · Bust→ shared byGreedy WilliamsJustin Layne
Greedy Williams
  • Jalen Ramsey
    CB · #5
    Starter
  • Adoree' Jacksonshared
    CB · #18
    Bust
  • Sidney Jones
    CB · #43
    Bust
  • Marshon Lattimore
    CB · #11
    Bust
  • Kevin Kingshared
    CB · #33
    Bust
Justin Layne
  • Chidobe Awuzie
    CB · #60
    Bust
  • Howard Wilson
    CB · #126
    TBD
  • Adoree' Jacksonshared
    CB · #18
    Bust
  • Kevin Kingshared
    CB · #33
    Bust
  • Maurice Canady
    CB · #209
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Greedy Williams
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Adoree' Jackson, Sidney Jones, Marshon Lattimore (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Justin Layne
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Chidobe Awuzie, Adoree' Jackson, Kevin King (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Greedy WilliamsJustin Layne· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Greedy Williams

Draftanomics projects Greedy Williams (age 21.4 at draft) as a first-round pick at #22 (range #12-#32, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jalen Ramsey (Starter), Adoree' Jackson (Bust), Sidney Jones (Bust). Ceiling is Jalen Ramsey (Starter); floor is Sidney Jones (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Adoree' Jackson, Sidney Jones, Marshon Lattimore (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #22 and the room's #22 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Justin Layne

Draftanomics projects Justin Layne (age 21.3 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #40 (range #1-#87, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Chidobe Awuzie (Bust), Howard Wilson, Adoree' Jackson (Bust). Ceiling is Howard Wilson; floor is Maurice Canady (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Chidobe Awuzie, Adoree' Jackson, Kevin King (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #40 against a consensus #53 is a 13-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.