3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Amani Hooker (age 20.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #73 (range #15-#131, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Desmond King (Bust), Keanu Neal (Starter), Marcus Williams (Bust). Ceiling is Karl Joseph (Starter); floor is Jalen Mills (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Desmond King, Marcus Williams. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #73 sits within 4 spots of the room's #69 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Taylor Rapp (age 21.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #16 (range #8-#24, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jabrill Peppers (Bust), Malik Hooker (Bust), Budda Baker (Bust). Ceiling is Jamal Adams (Bust); floor is Marcus Williams (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jabrill Peppers, Malik Hooker, Budda Baker (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #16 vs consensus #48), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Darnell Savage Jr. (age 21.7 at draft) as a first-round pick at #27 (range #1-#82, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Desmond King (Bust), Marcus Williams (Bust), Keanu Neal (Starter). Ceiling is Karl Joseph (Starter); floor is Will Parks (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Desmond King, Marcus Williams. Mixed signal from history. The call is a value lean: #27 against a consensus #48 is a 21-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group has bust risk the tax on that edge.