3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Travis Homer (age 20.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #234 (range #190-#278, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Matthew Dayes (Bust), Khalfani Muhammad, David Cobb (Bust). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Matthew Dayes, David Cobb, Brian Hill. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #234 against a consensus #255 is a 21-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Alexander Mattison (age 20.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #185 (range #143-#227, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Matthew Dayes (Bust), Wendell Smallwood (Starter). Ceiling is Wendell Smallwood (Starter); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Matthew Dayes, Kareem Hunt. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #116 and the model won't take him before #185 — a 69-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Ty Johnson (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #181 (range #151-#211, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Matthew Dayes (Bust), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is Wendell Smallwood (Starter); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Matthew Dayes, Josh Robinson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 112 spots ahead of the room (board #181 vs consensus #293), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.