3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Justin Hollins (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #202 (range #182-#222, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Antwione Williams (Bust), Anthony Walker (Bust), Matt Milano (Bust). Ceiling is Jayon Brown (Bust); floor is Trevor Bates (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Antwione Williams, Anthony Walker, Matt Milano (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #84 and the model won't take him before #202 — a 118-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Emeke Egbule (age 22.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #86 (range #67-#105, wide band). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Anthony Walker (Bust), Elijah Lee (Bust), Jayon Brown (Bust). Ceiling is Jayon Brown (Bust); floor is Elijah Lee (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Anthony Walker, Elijah Lee, Jayon Brown (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 46 spots ahead of the room (board #86 vs consensus #132), and at a 45% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Rashan Gary (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #36 (range #8-#64, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Raekwon McMillan, Jarrad Davis (Bust), Blake Martinez (Starter). Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Raekwon McMillan. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jarrad Davis, Haason Reddick, Duke Riley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #36 sits within 9 spots of the room's #27 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.