2 prospects · 2019 draft
Justin Hollins and Jachai Polite project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Justin Hollins (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #202 (range #182-#222, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Antwione Williams (Bust), Anthony Walker (Bust), Matt Milano (Bust). Ceiling is Jayon Brown (Bust); floor is Trevor Bates (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Antwione Williams, Anthony Walker, Matt Milano (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #84 and the model won't take him before #202 — a 118-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jachai Polite (age 21.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #74 (range #28-#120, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Haason Reddick (Bust), Raekwon McMillan, Blake Martinez (Starter). Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Raekwon McMillan. Drafted #68 by NYJ in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #59 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.