3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Riley Ridley (age 22.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #137 (range #77-#197, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Noah Brown (Bust), Malachi Dupre, Curtis Samuel (Bust). Ceiling is Laquon Treadwell (Starter); floor is Malachi Dupre. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Noah Brown, Curtis Samuel, JuJu Smith-Schuster. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #71 and the model won't take him before #137 — a 66-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Marquise Brown (age 21.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #25 (range #12-#38, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust), Laquon Treadwell (Starter), Corey Davis (Bust). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Laquon Treadwell (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis, Mike Williams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #25 sits within 7 spots of the room's #32 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects JJ Arcega-Whiteside (age 22.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #87 (range #39-#135, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust), Daniel Braverman (Bust), Shelton Gibson (Bust). Ceiling is Carlos Henderson; floor is Isaiah Ford. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Daniel Braverman, Shelton Gibson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 26 spots below the room's consensus #61 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.