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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
TJ
Ty Johnson
RB · Maryland
21.6 yo · — · —
TH
Travis Homer
RB · Miami (FL)
20.7 yo · 5'10" · 201 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Ty Johnson over Travis Homer.

Decisive factor: 53-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Ty Johnson
Predicted pick
#181
range #151–#211
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Travis Homer
Predicted pick
#234
range #190–#278
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Ty Johnson· RB / WR / TE
  • Travis Homer· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTy Johnson32
  • AthleticismTravis Homer53
  • AgeTy Johnson84
  • ConsensusTy Johnson23
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Ty Johnson50
  • Breakout ageTy Johnson50
  • WorkloadTy Johnson100
  • RAS × productionTy Johnson0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • David CobbRB · Bust→ shared byTy JohnsonTravis Homer
  • Matthew DayesRB · Bust→ shared byTy JohnsonTravis Homer
  • Khalfani MuhammadRB · TBD→ shared byTy JohnsonTravis Homer
Ty Johnson
  • David Cobbshared
    RB · #138
    Bust
  • Matthew Dayesshared
    RB · #252
    Bust
  • Josh Robinson
    RB · #205
    Bust
  • Wendell Smallwood
    RB · #153
    Starter
  • Khalfani Muhammadshared
    RB · #241
    TBD
Travis Homer
  • Matthew Dayesshared
    RB · #252
    Bust
  • Khalfani Muhammadshared
    RB · #241
    TBD
  • David Cobbshared
    RB · #138
    Bust
  • Tevin Coleman
    RB · #73
    Franchise
  • Brian Hill
    RB · #156
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Ty Johnson
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #293; model has him #181 — a 112-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Matthew Dayes, Josh Robinson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Travis Homer
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Matthew Dayes, David Cobb, Brian Hill. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Ty JohnsonTravis Homer· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Ty Johnson

Draftanomics projects Ty Johnson (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #181 (range #151-#211, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Matthew Dayes (Bust), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is Wendell Smallwood (Starter); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Matthew Dayes, Josh Robinson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 112 spots ahead of the room (board #181 vs consensus #293), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Travis Homer

Draftanomics projects Travis Homer (age 20.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #234 (range #190-#278, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Matthew Dayes (Bust), Khalfani Muhammad, David Cobb (Bust). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Matthew Dayes, David Cobb, Brian Hill. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #234 against a consensus #255 is a 21-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.