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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
RC
Ryan Connelly
LB · Wisconsin
23.6 yo · 6'2" · 242 lb
KE
Kaden Elliss
LB · Idaho
23.8 yo · — · —
ST
Sione Takitaki
LB · BYU
23.9 yo · 6'1" · 238 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Ryan Connelly
Predicted pick
#128
range #104–#152
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Kaden Elliss
Predicted pick
#201
range #199–#203
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$10Mmodel
Sione Takitaki
Predicted pick
#169
range #153–#185
Bust probability
10%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#141
on 1 board
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Ryan Connelly· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Kaden Elliss· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Sione Takitaki· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionRyan Connelly38
  • AthleticismRyan Connelly41
  • AgeKaden Elliss36
  • ConsensusSione Takitaki21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Ryan Connelly50
  • Breakout ageRyan Connelly50
  • WorkloadRyan Connelly100
  • RAS × productionSione Takitaki63

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Antwione WilliamsLB · Bust→ shared byRyan ConnellySione Takitaki
  • Vince BiegelLB · Bust→ shared byRyan ConnellySione Takitaki
  • Matt MilanoLB · Bust→ shared byRyan ConnellySione Takitaki
Ryan Connelly
  • Antwione Williamsshared
    LB · #169
    Bust
  • Duke Riley
    LB · #75
    Bust
  • Vince Biegelshared
    LB · #108
    Bust
  • Jayon Brown
    LB · #155
    Bust
  • Matt Milanoshared
    LB · #163
    Bust
Kaden Elliss
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Sione Takitaki
  • Matthew Wells
    LB · #178
    TBD
  • Vince Biegelshared
    LB · #108
    Bust
  • Antwione Williamsshared
    LB · #169
    Bust
  • Matt Milanoshared
    LB · #163
    Bust
  • Blair Brown
    LB · #148
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Ryan Connelly
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #202; model has him #128 — a 74-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Antwione Williams, Duke Riley, Vince Biegel (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Kaden Elliss
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Sione Takitaki
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.9 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Vince Biegel, Antwione Williams, Matt Milano (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #98; model has him #169 — a 70-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Ryan ConnellyKaden EllissSione Takitaki· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Ryan Connelly

Draftanomics projects Ryan Connelly (age 23.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #128 (range #104-#152, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Antwione Williams (Bust), Duke Riley (Bust), Vince Biegel (Bust). Ceiling is Duke Riley (Bust); floor is Antwione Williams (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Antwione Williams, Duke Riley, Vince Biegel (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 74 spots ahead of the room (board #128 vs consensus #202), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Kaden Elliss

Draftanomics projects Kaden Elliss (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #201 (range #199-#203, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #201 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.

Sione Takitaki

Draftanomics projects Sione Takitaki (age 23.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #169 (range #153-#185, wide band). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Matthew Wells, Vince Biegel (Bust), Antwione Williams (Bust). Ceiling is Matthew Wells; floor is Antwione Williams (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Vince Biegel, Antwione Williams, Matt Milano (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #98 and the model won't take him before #169 — a 70-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.