3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Brailford (age 23.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #156 (range #117-#195, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Dadi Nicolas (Bust), Charles Tapper (Bust), Deatrich Wise Jr. (Bust). Ceiling is Tarell Basham (Bust); floor is Ejuan Price (Bust). Drafted #253 by WAS in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 88 spots ahead of the room (board #156 vs consensus #244) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Blake Cashman (age 23.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #65 (range #45-#85, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Antwione Williams (Bust), Matt Milano (Bust), Trevor Bates (Bust). Ceiling is Jayon Brown (Bust); floor is Trevor Bates (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Antwione Williams, Matt Milano, Trevor Bates (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 37 spots ahead of the room (board #65 vs consensus #102), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Sione Takitaki (age 23.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #169 (range #153-#185, wide band). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Matthew Wells, Vince Biegel (Bust), Antwione Williams (Bust). Ceiling is Matthew Wells; floor is Antwione Williams (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Vince Biegel, Antwione Williams, Matt Milano (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #98 and the model won't take him before #169 — a 70-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.