3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Dontavius Russell (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #240 (range #218-#262, wide band). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Isaac Rochell (Bust), Joey Ivie, D.J. Jones (Bust). Ceiling is Joey Ivie; floor is Isaac Rochell (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Isaac Rochell, D.J. Jones, Ryan Glasgow (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #133 and the model won't take him before #240 — a 107-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Demarcus Christmas (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #242 (range #208-#276, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: D.J. Jones (Bust), Eddie Vanderdoes (Bust), Isaac Rochell (Bust). Ceiling is Anthony Zettel (Starter); floor is Joey Ivie. Drafted #209 by SEA in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #222 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Byron Cowart (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #246 (range #204-#288, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Eddie Vanderdoes (Bust), Isaac Rochell (Bust), D.J. Jones (Bust). Ceiling is Joey Ivie; floor is Isaac Rochell (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Eddie Vanderdoes, Isaac Rochell, D.J. Jones (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #161 and the model won't take him before #246 — a 85-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.