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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
BC
Blake Cashman
LB · Minnesota
23.0 yo · 6'1" · 237 lb
AG
Andrew Van Ginkel
LB · Wisconsin
23.8 yo · 6'3" · 241 lb
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Blake Cashman over Andrew Van Ginkel.

Decisive factor: 122-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Blake Cashman
Predicted pick
#65
range #45–#85
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#151
on 22 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Andrew Van Ginkel
Predicted pick
#187
range #161–#213
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$18Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Blake Cashman· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Andrew Van Ginkel· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionBlake Cashman38
  • AthleticismAndrew Van Ginkel79
  • AgeBlake Cashman43
  • ConsensusBlake Cashman21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Blake Cashman50
  • Breakout ageBlake Cashman50
  • WorkloadBlake Cashman100
  • RAS × productionBlake Cashman0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Antwione WilliamsLB · Bust→ shared byBlake CashmanAndrew Van Ginkel
  • Matt MilanoLB · Bust→ shared byBlake CashmanAndrew Van Ginkel
Blake Cashman
  • Antwione Williamsshared
    LB · #169
    Bust
  • Matt Milanoshared
    LB · #163
    Bust
  • Trevor Bates
    LB · #239
    Bust
  • Jayon Brown
    LB · #155
    Bust
  • Anthony Walker
    LB · #161
    Bust
Andrew Van Ginkel
  • Vince Biegel
    LB · #108
    Bust
  • Antwione Williamsshared
    LB · #169
    Bust
  • Matthew Wells
    LB · #178
    TBD
  • Duke Riley
    LB · #75
    Bust
  • Matt Milanoshared
    LB · #163
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Blake Cashman
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    23 boards place him at mean rank #102; model has him #65 — a 37-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Antwione Williams, Matt Milano, Trevor Bates (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Andrew Van Ginkel
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #291; model has him #187 — a 104-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Vince Biegel, Antwione Williams, Duke Riley (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Blake CashmanAndrew Van Ginkel· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Blake Cashman

Draftanomics projects Blake Cashman (age 23.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #65 (range #45-#85, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Antwione Williams (Bust), Matt Milano (Bust), Trevor Bates (Bust). Ceiling is Jayon Brown (Bust); floor is Trevor Bates (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Antwione Williams, Matt Milano, Trevor Bates (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 37 spots ahead of the room (board #65 vs consensus #102), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Andrew Van Ginkel

Draftanomics projects Andrew Van Ginkel (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #187 (range #161-#213, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Vince Biegel (Bust), Antwione Williams (Bust), Matthew Wells. Ceiling is Matthew Wells; floor is Antwione Williams (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Vince Biegel, Antwione Williams, Duke Riley (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 104 spots ahead of the room (board #187 vs consensus #291), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.