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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2019 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
ZA
Zach Allen
EDGE · Boston Col.
21.7 yo · — · —
MS
Montez Sweat
EDGE · Mississippi St.
22.6 yo · — · —
NB
Nick Bosa
EDGE · Ohio St.
21.5 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Zach Allen
Predicted pick
#1
range #1–#25
Bust probability
6%
Consensus rank
#4
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$28Mmodel
Montez Sweat
Predicted pick
#26
range #8–#69
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#10
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$31Mmodel
Nick Bosa
Predicted pick
#15
range #1–#58
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#1
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$35Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Zach Allen· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Montez Sweat· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Nick Bosa· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionZach Allen38
  • AthleticismZach Allen41
  • AgeZach Allen70
  • ConsensusNick Bosa100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Zach Allen50
  • Breakout ageZach Allen50
  • WorkloadZach Allen100
  • RAS × productionZach Allen0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Zach Allen
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Montez Sweat
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Nick Bosa
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Zach Allen
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Montez Sweat
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Nick Bosa
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Zach AllenMontez SweatNick Bosa· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Zach Allen

+0.10 boards with him top-100; +0.07 scout consensus; +0.04 rank within position+class

Montez Sweat

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.07 scout consensus; +0.03 boards with him top-50

Nick Bosa

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.08 scout consensus; +0.04 rank within position+class