3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Trysten Hill (age 21.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #161 (range #114-#208, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Davon Godchaux (Bust), Malik McDowell, Maliek Collins (Starter). Ceiling is Maliek Collins (Starter); floor is Joey Ivie. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, Willie Henry. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #80 and the model won't take him before #161 — a 81-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Greg Gaines (age 23.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #69 (range #32-#106, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Davon Godchaux (Bust), Joey Ivie, Willie Henry (Bust). Ceiling is Maliek Collins (Starter); floor is Joey Ivie. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, Willie Henry, D.J. Jones. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 48 spots ahead of the room (board #69 vs consensus #117), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Dexter Lawrence (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #34 (range #1-#77, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Robert Nkemdiche (Starter), Kenny Clark (Starter), Andrew Billings (Bust). Ceiling is Sheldon Rankins (Starter); floor is Robert Nkemdiche (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #34 and the room's #32 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.