Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2019 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
JA
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
WR · Stanford
22.3 yo · — · —
MB
Marquise Brown
WR · Oklahoma
21.9 yo · 5'9" · 166 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Marquise Brown over JJ Arcega-Whiteside.

Decisive factor: 62-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Predicted pick
#87
range #39–#135
Bust probability
0%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
#59
on 22 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Marquise Brown
Predicted pick
#25
range #12–#38
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#31
on 26 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • JJ Arcega-Whiteside· RB / WR / TE
  • Marquise Brown· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJJ Arcega-Whiteside32
  • AthleticismJJ Arcega-Whiteside29
  • AgeJJ Arcega-Whiteside77
  • ConsensusJJ Arcega-Whiteside23
  • Per-play impact (PPA)JJ Arcega-Whiteside50
  • Breakout ageJJ Arcega-Whiteside50
  • WorkloadJJ Arcega-Whiteside100
  • RAS × productionJJ Arcega-Whiteside0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Bust→ shared byJJ Arcega-WhitesideMarquise Brown
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
  • JuJu Smith-Schustershared
    WR · #62
    Bust
  • Daniel Braverman
    WR · #230
    Bust
  • Shelton Gibson
    WR · #166
    Bust
  • Isaiah Ford
    WR · #237
    TBD
  • Carlos Henderson
    WR · #82
    TBD
Marquise Brown
  • JuJu Smith-Schustershared
    WR · #62
    Bust
  • Laquon Treadwell
    WR · #23
    Starter
  • Corey Davis
    WR · #5
    Bust
  • Mike Williams
    WR · #7
    Bust
  • Will Fuller
    WR · #21
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Daniel Braverman, Shelton Gibson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Marquise Brown
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis, Mike Williams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
JJ Arcega-WhitesideMarquise Brown· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

Draftanomics projects JJ Arcega-Whiteside (age 22.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #87 (range #39-#135, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust), Daniel Braverman (Bust), Shelton Gibson (Bust). Ceiling is Carlos Henderson; floor is Isaiah Ford. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Daniel Braverman, Shelton Gibson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 26 spots below the room's consensus #61 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.

Marquise Brown

Draftanomics projects Marquise Brown (age 21.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #25 (range #12-#38, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust), Laquon Treadwell (Starter), Corey Davis (Bust). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Laquon Treadwell (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis, Mike Williams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #25 sits within 7 spots of the room's #32 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.