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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2019 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OT, C)
AD
Andre Dillard
OT · Washington St.
— · 6'5" · 315 lb
EM
Erik McCoy
C · Texas A&M
— · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Erik McCoy over Andre Dillard.

Decisive factor: $10M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Andre Dillard
Predicted pick
#9
range #1–#42
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
Consensus rank
#23
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Erik McCoy
Predicted pick
#4
range #1–#57
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#40
on 25 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$17Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Andre Dillard· Offensive line
  • Erik McCoy· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAndre Dillard50
  • AthleticismAndre Dillard31
  • AgeErik McCoy67
  • ConsensusErik McCoy42
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Andre Dillard50
  • Breakout ageAndre Dillard50
  • WorkloadAndre Dillard50
  • RAS × productionAndre Dillard31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Andre Dillard
  • Jack Conklin
    OT · #8
    TBD
  • Garett Bolles
    OT · #20
    TBD
  • Alex Lewis
    OT · #130
    TBD
  • Antonio Garcia
    OT · #85
    TBD
  • Willie Beavers
    OT · #121
    TBD
Erik McCoy
  • Pat Elflein
    C · #70
    TBD
  • Ryan Kelly
    C · #18
    TBD
  • Graham Glasgow
    C · #95
    TBD
  • Austin Blythe
    C · #248
    TBD
  • Ethan Pocic
    C · #58
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Andre Dillard
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Erik McCoy
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    27 boards place him at mean rank #43; model has him #4 — a 39-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Andre DillardErik McCoy· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Andre Dillard

Draftanomics projects Andre Dillard as a top-10 pick at #9 (range #1-#42, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jack Conklin, Garett Bolles, Alex Lewis. Ceiling is Jack Conklin; floor is Alex Lewis. The call is a value lean: #9 against a consensus #24 is a 15-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.

Erik McCoy

Draftanomics projects Erik McCoy as a top-10 pick at #4 (range #1-#57, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Pat Elflein, Ryan Kelly, Graham Glasgow. Ceiling is Ryan Kelly; floor is Austin Blythe. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 39 spots ahead of the room (board #4 vs consensus #43), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.