3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
−0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.02 lowest board ranking; +0.02 age
Draftanomics projects Qadree Ollison (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #223 (range #182-#264, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Matthew Dayes (Bust), D'Onta Foreman (Bust). Ceiling is Khalfani Muhammad; floor is Matthew Dayes (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Matthew Dayes, D'Onta Foreman (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #223 against a consensus #250 is a 27-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Ryquell Armstead (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #182 (range #140-#224, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Matthew Dayes (Bust), Kareem Hunt (Bust). Ceiling is Wendell Smallwood (Starter); floor is Khalfani Muhammad. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Matthew Dayes, Kareem Hunt. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 24 spots below the room's consensus #158 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.