3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Mack Wilson (age 21.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #43 (range #3-#83, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Raekwon McMillan, Jarrad Davis (Bust), Duke Riley (Bust). Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Raekwon McMillan. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jarrad Davis, Duke Riley, Jordan Evans. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #43 against a consensus #62 is a 19-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Rashan Gary (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #36 (range #8-#64, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Raekwon McMillan, Jarrad Davis (Bust), Blake Martinez (Starter). Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Raekwon McMillan. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jarrad Davis, Haason Reddick, Duke Riley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #36 sits within 9 spots of the room's #27 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Jachai Polite (age 21.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #74 (range #28-#120, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Haason Reddick (Bust), Raekwon McMillan, Blake Martinez (Starter). Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Raekwon McMillan. Drafted #68 by NYJ in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #59 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.