3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Ty Summers (age 23.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #157 (range #133-#181, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Antwione Williams (Bust), Matt Milano (Bust), Jayon Brown (Bust). Ceiling is Jayon Brown (Bust); floor is Trevor Bates (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Antwione Williams, Matt Milano, Jayon Brown (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 127 spots ahead of the room (board #157 vs consensus #284), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Cortez Broughton (age 22.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #104 (range #73-#135, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kristjan Sokoli, Tyeler Davison (Franchise), Maliek Collins (Starter). Ceiling is Grady Jarrett (Franchise); floor is Kristjan Sokoli. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #104 sits within 8 spots of the room's #96 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 45% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Blake Cashman (age 23.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #65 (range #45-#85, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Antwione Williams (Bust), Matt Milano (Bust), Trevor Bates (Bust). Ceiling is Jayon Brown (Bust); floor is Trevor Bates (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Antwione Williams, Matt Milano, Trevor Bates (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 37 spots ahead of the room (board #65 vs consensus #102), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.