3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kingsley Keke (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #133 (range #95-#171, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Davon Godchaux (Bust), Willie Henry (Bust), Arik Armstead (Franchise). Ceiling is Arik Armstead (Franchise); floor is Maliek Collins (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 21 spots below the room's consensus #112 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Greg Gaines (age 23.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #69 (range #32-#106, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Davon Godchaux (Bust), Joey Ivie, Willie Henry (Bust). Ceiling is Maliek Collins (Starter); floor is Joey Ivie. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Davon Godchaux, Willie Henry, D.J. Jones. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 48 spots ahead of the room (board #69 vs consensus #117), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Chris Slayton (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #199 (range #183-#215, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Matthew Ioannidis (Starter), Joey Ivie, D.J. Jones (Bust). Ceiling is Darius Philon (Franchise); floor is Joey Ivie. Drafted #245 by NYG in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 55 spots ahead of the room (board #199 vs consensus #254) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.