2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: 54-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Justice Hill (age 21.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #88 (range #63-#113, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Ameer Abdullah (Franchise), Tyler Ervin (Contributor), Jeremy McNichols (Bust). Ceiling is Ameer Abdullah (Franchise); floor is Tyler Ervin (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Jeremy McNichols, Marlon Mack. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #88 sits within 4 spots of the room's #84 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Miles Sanders (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #142 (range #106-#178, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Paul Perkins (Starter), Marlon Mack (Bust), Christian McCaffrey (Bust). Ceiling is C.J. Prosise (Starter); floor is Paul Perkins (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Marlon Mack, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #70 and the model won't take him before #142 — a 72-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.