3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Shaquille Leonard (age 22.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #67 (range #50-#84, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #67 against a consensus #86 is a 19-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Jacob Martin (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #242 (range #191-#293, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Preston Smith (Franchise), Benardrick McKinney (Franchise), Cory James (Starter). Ceiling is Preston Smith (Franchise); floor is Kristjan Sokoli. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #242 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Matthew Adams (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #136 (range #88-#184, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Elandon Roberts (Starter), Matthew Ioannidis (Starter), Nate Orchard (Franchise). Ceiling is Bud Dupree (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 661 spots ahead of the room (board #136 vs consensus #797), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.