3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Sony Michel (age 23.2 at draft) as a first-round pick at #32 (range #1-#64, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: C.J. Prosise (Starter), Kenyan Drake (Contributor), Derrick Henry (Starter). Ceiling is Ezekiel Elliott (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #32 sits within 3 spots of the room's #35 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Nick Chubb (age 22.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #15 (range #1-#47, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: C.J. Prosise (Starter), Derrick Henry (Starter), Ezekiel Elliott (Starter). Ceiling is Ezekiel Elliott (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). The call is a value lean: #15 against a consensus #39 is a 24-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Royce Freeman (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #37 (range #6-#68, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Mike Davis (Starter), C.J. Prosise (Starter), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is C.J. Prosise (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 45 spots ahead of the room (board #37 vs consensus #82), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.