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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OLB, LB)
MJ
Malik Jefferson
OLB · Texas
21.4 yo · 6'3" · 236 lb
JI
Joel Iyiegbuniwe
LB · Western Kentucky
22.5 yo · 6'1" · 229 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Malik Jefferson over Joel Iyiegbuniwe.

Decisive factor: 143-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Malik Jefferson
Predicted pick
#49
range #30–#68
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#76
on 16 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Joel Iyiegbuniwe
Predicted pick
#192
range #141–#243
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Malik Jefferson· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Joel Iyiegbuniwe· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMalik Jefferson53
  • AthleticismMalik Jefferson96
  • AgeMalik Jefferson84
  • ConsensusMalik Jefferson8
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Malik Jefferson50
  • Breakout ageMalik Jefferson50
  • WorkloadMalik Jefferson100
  • RAS × productionJoel Iyiegbuniwe40

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Malik Jefferson
  • Deion Jones
    OLB · #52
    Starter
  • B.J. Goodson
    OLB · #109
    Contributor
  • Myles Jack
    OLB · #36
    Starter
  • Su'a Cravens
    OLB · #53
    Bust
  • Shaq Thompson
    OLB · #25
    Starter
Joel Iyiegbuniwe
  • Kristjan Sokoli
    DT · #214
    TBD
  • Preston Smith
    EDGE · #38
    Franchise
  • Cory James
    OLB · #194
    Starter
  • Jatavis Brown
    OLB · #175
    Starter
  • Benardrick McKinney
    ILB · #43
    Franchise

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Malik Jefferson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Deion Jones, Myles Jack, Shaq Thompson. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Joel Iyiegbuniwe
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #371; model has him #192 — a 179-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Preston Smith, Cory James, Jatavis Brown (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Malik JeffersonJoel Iyiegbuniwe· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Malik Jefferson

Draftanomics projects Malik Jefferson (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #49 (range #30-#68, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Deion Jones (Starter), B.J. Goodson (Contributor), Myles Jack (Starter). Ceiling is Shaq Thompson (Starter); floor is B.J. Goodson (Contributor). The call is a value lean: #49 against a consensus #68 is a 19-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.

Joel Iyiegbuniwe

Draftanomics projects Joel Iyiegbuniwe (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #192 (range #141-#243, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kristjan Sokoli, Preston Smith (Franchise), Cory James (Starter). Ceiling is Preston Smith (Franchise); floor is Kristjan Sokoli. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 179 spots ahead of the room (board #192 vs consensus #371), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.