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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
SJ
Sebastian Joseph-Day
DT · Rutgers
23.1 yo · — · —
JT
Jullian Taylor
DT · Temple
23.2 yo · — · —
BH
B.J. Hill
DT · North Carolina St.
23.0 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Sebastian Joseph-Day
Predicted pick
#154
range #130–#178
Bust probability
65%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel
Jullian Taylor
Predicted pick
#216
range #192–#240
Bust probability
55%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
B.J. Hill
Predicted pick
#81
range #68–#94
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#125
on 15 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$15Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Sebastian Joseph-Day· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Jullian Taylor· EDGE / DL / LB
  • B.J. Hill· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionSebastian Joseph-Day53
  • AthleticismSebastian Joseph-Day48
  • AgeB.J. Hill50
  • ConsensusB.J. Hill9
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Sebastian Joseph-Day50
  • Breakout ageSebastian Joseph-Day50
  • WorkloadSebastian Joseph-Day100
  • RAS × productionSebastian Joseph-Day0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Quinton JeffersonDT · Starter→ shared bySebastian Joseph-DayJullian TaylorB.J. Hill
  • David OnyemataDT · Starter→ shared bySebastian Joseph-DayJullian TaylorB.J. Hill
  • Rodney GunterDT · Starter→ shared bySebastian Joseph-DayJullian TaylorB.J. Hill
  • Xavier CooperDT · Franchise→ shared bySebastian Joseph-DayJullian TaylorB.J. Hill
  • Darius KilgoDT · Starter→ shared bySebastian Joseph-DayJullian Taylor
Sebastian Joseph-Day
  • Quinton Jeffersonshared
    DT · #147
    Starter
  • David Onyematashared
    DT · #120
    Starter
  • Rodney Guntershared
    DT · #116
    Starter
  • Xavier Coopershared
    DT · #96
    Franchise
  • Darius Kilgoshared
    DT · #203
    Starter
Jullian Taylor
  • David Onyematashared
    DT · #120
    Starter
  • Rodney Guntershared
    DT · #116
    Starter
  • Darius Kilgoshared
    DT · #203
    Starter
  • Xavier Coopershared
    DT · #96
    Franchise
  • Quinton Jeffersonshared
    DT · #147
    Starter
B.J. Hill
  • Javon Hargrave
    DT · #89
    Starter
  • Quinton Jeffersonshared
    DT · #147
    Starter
  • Rodney Guntershared
    DT · #116
    Starter
  • David Onyematashared
    DT · #120
    Starter
  • Xavier Coopershared
    DT · #96
    Franchise

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Sebastian Joseph-Day
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #195 by LAR in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Quinton Jefferson, David Onyemata, Rodney Gunter (+2 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Jullian Taylor
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #744; model has him #216 — a 528-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: David Onyemata, Rodney Gunter, Darius Kilgo (+2 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
B.J. Hill
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Javon Hargrave, Quinton Jefferson, Rodney Gunter (+2 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Y8Snap share
Sebastian Joseph-DayJullian TaylorB.J. Hill· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Sebastian Joseph-Day

Draftanomics projects Sebastian Joseph-Day (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #154 (range #130-#178, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Quinton Jefferson (Starter), David Onyemata (Starter), Rodney Gunter (Starter). Ceiling is Xavier Cooper (Franchise); floor is Darius Kilgo (Starter). Drafted #195 by LAR in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 581 spots ahead of the room (board #154 vs consensus #735) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

Jullian Taylor

Draftanomics projects Jullian Taylor (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #216 (range #192-#240, wide band). Bust probability sits at 55% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Onyemata (Starter), Rodney Gunter (Starter), Darius Kilgo (Starter). Ceiling is Xavier Cooper (Franchise); floor is Darius Kilgo (Starter). Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 528 spots ahead of the room (board #216 vs consensus #744) — but size the bet for the 55% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

B.J. Hill

Draftanomics projects B.J. Hill (age 23.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #81 (range #68-#94, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Javon Hargrave (Starter), Quinton Jefferson (Starter), Rodney Gunter (Starter). Ceiling is Xavier Cooper (Franchise); floor is Quinton Jefferson (Starter). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #81 sits within 2 spots of the room's #83 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.