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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OT)
JN
Joseph Noteboom
OT · TCU
— · 6'5" · 309 lb
MP
Matt Pryor
OT · TCU
— · — · —
JM
Jordan Mailata
OT ·
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Joseph Noteboom
Predicted pick
#164
range #117–#211
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel
Matt Pryor
Predicted pick
#204
range #187–#221
Bust probability· rough estimate
65%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Jordan Mailata
Predicted pick
#144
range #119–#169
Bust probability· rough estimate
78%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$17Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Joseph Noteboom· Offensive line
  • Matt Pryor· Offensive line
  • Jordan Mailata· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJoseph Noteboom50
  • AthleticismJoseph Noteboom73
  • AgeJordan Mailata97
  • ConsensusJoseph Noteboom4
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Joseph Noteboom50
  • Breakout ageJoseph Noteboom50
  • WorkloadJoseph Noteboom50
  • RAS × productionJoseph Noteboom0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Joseph Noteboom
  • Andrus Peat
    OT · #13
    TBD
  • Tayo Fabuluje
    OT · #183
    TBD
  • D.J. Humphries
    OT · #24
    TBD
  • Rob Havenstein
    OT · #57
    TBD
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai
    OT · #164
    TBD
Matt Pryor
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jordan Mailata
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Joseph Noteboom
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #100; model has him #164 — a 64-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Matt Pryor
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #206 by PHI in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #136; model has him #204 — a 68-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Jordan Mailata
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Y8Snap share
Joseph NoteboomMatt PryorJordan Mailata· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Joseph Noteboom

Draftanomics projects Joseph Noteboom as a mid-round flyer at #164 (range #117-#211, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Andrus Peat, Tayo Fabuluje, D.J. Humphries. Ceiling is Andrus Peat; floor is Tayo Fabuluje. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #100 and the model won't take him before #164 — a 64-spot markdown. The 64-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.

Matt Pryor

Draftanomics projects Matt Pryor as a Day 3 dart throw at #204 (range #187-#221, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #206 by PHI in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #136 and the model won't take him before #204 — a 68-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.

Jordan Mailata

Draftanomics projects Jordan Mailata as a mid-round flyer at #144 (range #119-#169, wide band). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #144 stands alone — and with bust risk at 78%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.