3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Derwin James (age 21.7 at draft) as a first-round pick at #12 (range #1-#72, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jalen Mills (Starter), Keanu Neal (Starter), Karl Joseph (Starter). Ceiling is Karl Joseph (Starter); floor is Jayron Kearse (Backup). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #12 sits within 3 spots of the room's #9 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Ronnie Harrison (age 21.0 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #54 (range #1-#114, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Vonn Bell (Starter), Jayron Kearse (Backup), Jalen Mills (Starter). Ceiling is Karl Joseph (Starter); floor is Jayron Kearse (Backup). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #54 sits within 10 spots of the room's #44 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Justin Reid (age 21.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #51 (range #1-#111, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jalen Mills (Starter), Keanu Neal (Starter), Karl Joseph (Starter). Ceiling is Karl Joseph (Starter); floor is Jayron Kearse (Backup). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #51 sits within 2 spots of the room's #53 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.