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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
MR
Mason Rudolph
QB · Oklahoma St.
22.8 yo · 6'5" · 235 lb
LJ
Lamar Jackson
QB · Louisville
21.3 yo · 6'2" · 216 lb
BM
Baker Mayfield
QB · Oklahoma
23.0 yo · 6'1" · 215 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Mason Rudolph
Predicted pick
#55
range #33–#92
Bust probability· rough estimate
14%
Consensus rank
#55
on 24 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Lamar Jackson
Predicted pick
#60
range #24–#193
Bust probability· rough estimate
6%
Consensus rank
#26
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$70Mmodel
Baker Mayfield
Predicted pick
#3
range #6–#54
Bust probability· rough estimate
4%
Consensus rank
#11
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$38Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Mason Rudolph· QB
  • Lamar Jackson· QB
  • Baker Mayfield· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionLamar Jackson100
  • AthleticismMason Rudolph0
  • AgeMason Rudolph66
  • ConsensusBaker Mayfield100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Mason Rudolph50
  • Breakout ageMason Rudolph50
  • WorkloadMason Rudolph50
  • RAS × productionMason Rudolph0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Mason Rudolph
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Lamar Jackson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Baker Mayfield
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Mason Rudolph
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Lamar Jackson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Baker Mayfield
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Mason RudolphLamar JacksonBaker Mayfield· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Mason Rudolph

+0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.04 charting pass grade max; +0.03 number of boards ranking him

Lamar Jackson

+0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.04 boards with him top-50; −0.03 position role purity

Baker Mayfield

+0.10 scout consensus; +0.08 boards with him top-100; +0.04 boards with him top-50